A Recession ahead: Fed expects this year after the banking crisis

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According to Federal Reserve data published on Wednesday, the effects of the U.S. banking crisis are expected to cause the economy to enter a recession later this year.

Fed data

According to Federal Reserve data published on Wednesday, the effects of the U.S. banking crisis are expected to cause the economy to enter a recession later this year.

The demise of Silicon Valley Bank and other volatility in the financial industry that started early in March were discussed in a presentation by staff members at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting in March.

FOMC vice chair for Supervision Michael Barr’s Statement

Although Michael Barr, vice chair for supervision, said that the banking industry is “sound and resilient,” staff economists predicted that the economy will suffer.

Us FOMC Outcome Summary

The meeting report stated that the staff’s prediction at the time of the March meeting included a slight recession commencing later this year, with a rebound over the next two years, given their evaluation of the possible economic implications of the recent banking-sector events.

Following the meeting, projections showed that FOMC policymakers anticipate a 0.4% annual increase in the gross domestic product. The Atlanta FOMC’s projection of a 1.4% first-quarter rise would suggest a downturn later in the year.

Although there had been some anticipation that the FOMC might maintain rates in the wake of the crisis, policymakers emphasized that more needed to be done to control inflation.

The benchmark borrowing rate was subsequently raised by 0.25 percentage points by the FOMC, the ninth rise in the previous year. The Fed Funds Rate then increased to its highest level since late 2007—a target range of 4.75–5 percent.

Fed Rate hike after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed

The rate increase happened less than two weeks after Silicon Valley Bank, the 17th-largest institution in the United States at the time, failed due to a run on deposits. The loss of SVB and two other companies prompted the FOMC to establish emergency lending facilities in order to ensure banks could continue to operate.

The inflation data since the meeting has generally complied with the FOMC’s objectives. Officials stated at the conference that they anticipate additional price declines.

Core inflation was predicted to fall considerably next year, according to the minutes, reflecting the consequences of reduced projected tightness in the product and labour markets.

Fed 0.5 point increase without a crisis?

As they waited to observe how the crisis developed, some officials debated whether to keep rates unchanged. They eventually gave in and consented to vote in favour of a rate increase, citing “high inflation, the strength of recent economic data, and their commitment to bringing inflation down to the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent.”

The Fed meetings are where?

Ans. The FOMC generally holds its eight annual meetings at the Eccles Building’s Board Room in Washington, D.C ; but, when required, members can convene by teleconference. The FOMC may and does convene more frequently if economic conditions demand more gatherings.

What does FOMC stand for?

Ans. Federal Open Market Committee.

What is the Indian time for Fed announcement today?

Ans. On the night between Wednesday and Thursday, the US Fed will hold a news conference at 12:30 AM IST to address the media. The ET NOW channel will broadcast the minute-by-minute specifics of the Fed rate adjustment decision, which will be made public during the Fed meeting today.

Will Fed meeting affect stock market?

Ans. The FED’s objectives are to handle banking panics, uphold financial system stability, limit systemic risk in financial markets, and promote economic development. Therefore, it is quite improbable that the outcomes of FOMC meetings would be really bad for equities. The fundamental reason for a positive drift is this.

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