The Federal Reserve Board, its aggressive battle to contain inflation on Wednesday by increasing its benchmark short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point, despite the financial turbulence following Silicon Valley Bank’s failure.
The Federal Reserve Forecasting
The Federal Reserve Board officials are now expecting just one more rate hike this year and even that move is questionable, noting that the crisis will limit bank lending and harm the economy and inflation.
The Fed is forecasting another quarter-point hike to a peak range of 5% to 5.25%, in line with its December projection and lower than the amount markets anticipated before to SVB’s catastrophe.
The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference comments
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference that “you may conceive of (the crisis) as being the equivalent of a rate hike and perhaps more than that.”
It’s still too early to know, he continued, how much the tighter bank lending will hinder the economy and control inflation, but it may be more substantial than anticipated, and the Fed “may have less work to do.”
Fed views on the US financial system
The Federal Reserve noted recent pressures in the nation’s banks and stated they will weaken the economy in a statement following a two-day meeting, but maintained the financial system is stable.
Powell called Silicon Valley Bank “an exception,” noting that the flow of deposits from smaller banks to bigger ones has slowed and that no institutions are exhibiting the issues that beset it.
FED raised rates by 25 basis points
The federal funds rate now ranges from 4.75% to 5% as a result of the Fed’s most recent action. The increase in interest rates for credit cards, adjustable-rate mortgages, and other loans is anticipated to further hamper economic activity. Yet after years of pitiful returns, Americans, particularly seniors, are now enjoying greater bank savings yields.
The Federal Reserve was forced to make a difficult choice over whether to stick with its rhetoric of combating inflation or adopt a more cautious approach and halt after 412 points of rate increases over the previous year, amid the aftershocks of bank runs that brought down SVB and another bank. The most rapid flurry of rate increases since the early 1980s occurred at those eight consecutive sessions and contributed to the crisis, increasing the possibility that further increases may make the problems facing banks worse.
When the crisis started, Federal Reserve officials were unable to telegraph their rate intentions as normal since they were in a quiet period that forbade communication with the general public. For a meeting that is generally well-planned to prevent shocking markets, that produced unusual drama. On the other hand, analysts disagreed on what the Fed would do.
What influenced the rate increase?
Most experts predicted regulators would raise the fed funds rate by a quarter point since financial conditions have eased recently. Increasing by less than the half point that markets had anticipated prior to the crisis, would allude to the financial issues. Yet, it would continue the Fed’s efforts to control inflation, which has risen sharply thus far this year after dropping in late 2022. Concerns about inflation have been exacerbated by the acceleration of consumer spending, salary rises, and job creation since last year.
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) publication from the Federal Reserve
According to the median prediction of policymakers, the Fed stated on Wednesday that it anticipates the economy to expand by 0.4% in 2023, which is somewhat less than the 0.5% it predicted in December. In contrast to their earlier projection of 1.6% growth, officials now expect just 1.2% growth in 2024.
Several experts, who are less upbeat, believe that this year’s recession will be caused by the Fed’s rate rises as well as the financial problems.
Capital Economics economist Andrew Hunter asserts that the crisis has increased his firm’s conviction that the economy will shortly enter a recession and that the Fed will soon begin reducing interest rates. His perspective is in contrast to Fed projections, which indicate no rate reductions until 2024.
By the end of the year, the Fed projects that the current unemployment rate of 3.6% will increase to 4.5%, somewhat lower than the 4.6% they had previously predicted.
Yet compared to prior projections of 3.1%, the Fed’s preferred gauge of annual inflation is now anticipated to fall from 5.4% in January to 3.3% by year’s end. Next year, inflation is anticipated to reach 2.5%.
In light of this, a Fed pause would have likely boosted equities and decreased corporate borrowing rates, boosting an economy that authorities have been attempting to weaken in order to contain inflation, according to Oxford Economics analyst Ryan Sweet.
According to experts, a pause may have indicated that the Fed was concerned about the stability of the banking system, which could have increased tension.
The European Central Bank increased interest rates last week despite Credit Suisse’s problems, which were resolved when UBS bought the investment bank. Markets were unaffected by the ECB’s action, giving many Fed watchers additional hope that the Fed will do the same.
But, a rate increase, according to Goldman Sachs and others, would defeat the Fed’s objectives of easing financial pressures and ensuring the stability of American institutions, particularly given that the crisis was sparked by the central bank’s impulsive rate rises.
Also, Goldman predicted that the unrest will reduce economic growth by up to a half point, which would be comparable to a quarter to a half-point rate rise since banks are predicted to reduce lending as a result of the unrest. That would offer the Fed some wiggle room to watch the crisis’ residual effects while remaining neutral.
2023 bank financial crisis in the USA
As failing tech businesses started taking money out of Silicon Valley Bank for funding requirements, the bank was forced to sell bonds that had lost value due to the Fed’s abrupt rate hikes. Other clients with deposits exceeding $250,000 who aren’t FDIC insured withdrew their money as a result of the bank’s capital losses.
Powell told reporters, “The question we were asking during that first week was, ‘How did this happen?'”
First Republic Bank, which got $30 billion in deposits from JPMorgan and other big banks, was threatened by similar bank runs that ultimately caused the downfall of Signature Bank of New York.
In order to guarantee that depositors at SVB, Signature, and maybe other banks that represent a danger to the financial system could access all of their money, the Fed and other authorities stated they would provide funding. They also introduced a loan facility so that other local banks could borrow money to pay for withdrawals made by depositors who were not insured.